The rupee tumbled to a historic low, crossing the 88-per-dollar mark for the first time, triggered by punitive US trade tariffs. In the last week of August 2025, Washington imposed an extra 25% tariff on Indian goods, doubling the total duties on the South Asian nation to 50%. Typically, a weaker rupee makes imports, such as crude oil, more expensive, drains India’s balance of payments, and leaves the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stuck between two difficult choices: either continue supporting growth or defend the currency as foreign investors start pulling back. Beyond policy decisions and financial markets, the impact of a falling rupee seeps directly into daily life. This effect can be felt in various areas, including fuel prices, the cost of goods, foreign loans, investments, and even long-term financial plans. In this article, we will discuss what is driving the decline of the Indian currency to an all-time low and, more importantly, the impact it has on your personal finances.
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Rupee hits an all-time low, but why?
On August 29, 2025, the rupee plummeted to a record low of 88.30 per US dollar. What is dragging the rupee down?
To understand it better, let’s start with the basics. How are the prices of goods or services determined? They follow a simple principle: supply and demand. When demand is high and supply is limited, prices tend to rise. If supply exceeds demand, prices fall.
Currencies follow the same principle. The price of a currency is determined by the demand and supply for that currency in relation to another. Think of the rupee and the dollar as a “currency pair.” If more people want the rupee, it appreciates; if fewer people want it, it depreciates. When the rupee is falling, it indicates diminished interest in holding it and an increased demand for dollars.
Now, let’s address the main question: why has the rupee fallen below Rs 88 for the first time? There are three key reasons behind this:
- US tariffs hit Indian exports
Recent tariffs imposed by Donald Trump have made Indian goods more expensive and less competitive in the United States. A punitive US tariff could widen India’s trade deficit—the difference between what India sells and buys from other countries. In July 2025 alone, the deficit jumped to $27.35 billion, resulting in increased demand for dollars to cover imports such as oil and gold.
- FPIs pulling money out of Indian stocks
Foreign Portfolio Investors or FPIs reacted to the tariffs by selling their Indian stocks and pulling money out of the country. They have sold $9.7 billion in Indian debt and equities so far this year. FPIs have pulled more than $1 billion from Indian equities over the two sessions following the announcement of additional US tariffs. It has heightened the demand for US dollars as investors converted their rupees back into their home currencies.
- RBI’s struggle to support the rupee
The Reserve Bank of India attempted to stabilise the rupee by selling $5 billion worth of dollars from its reserves, but these efforts were insufficient. India’s foreign exchange reserves still declined by $4.39 billion in just one week, highlighting the significant pressure on the currency.
What does a falling rupee mean?
When the rupee depreciates, you need to spend more rupees to buy the same amount of foreign currency. Think of it this way: Ten years ago, you had to pay ₹66.79 for $1. Now you need to pay ₹88.15 for the same $1. So the rupee has lost 33% of its value over that period.
While the rupee has tested fresh lows in recent times, historical data shows that it has consistently weakened over the past two decades, with an average annual depreciation of 3–4% against the dollar.
Rupee vs. US dollar over last 10 years
| Year | 1 USD to INR (Approx) |
| 2015 | 66.79 |
| 2016 | 67.63 |
| 2017 | 64.94 |
| 2018 | 70.64 |
| 2019 | 72.15 |
| 2020 | 74.31 |
| 2021 | 75.45 |
| 2022 | 81.62 |
| 2023 | 81.94 |
| 2024 | 84.83 |
| 2025* | 88.15 |
How does a falling rupee affect your finances?
A weaker rupee increases the cost of imports, fuels inflation, and makes loans and foreign education more expensive. It also erodes savings and alters long-term investment plans. Let’s explore these impacts in detail.
Impact of falling rupee on foreign education
If you are saving to send your children abroad for higher studies, a weaker rupee makes it more costly, even if the actual fees of the courses haven’t changed.
For example, three years ago in 2022, a master’s program in the USA costing $50,000 a year would require ₹37.5 lakh, as the rupee was ₹75 to the dollar. Fast forward to today, with the rupee at ₹88 per dollar—suddenly, that same program now costs ₹44 lakh. That’s an almost 19% increase.
It becomes even more difficult for families with children already studying abroad. As of 2025, there are over 1.8 million Indian students overseas, and fluctuations in the rupee create significant financial challenges for them.
Now, if you took out a $50,000 education loan when the rupee was at ₹75 you will have to pay an additional ₹5 lakh to come up with! With a student loan interest rate of 7.5% and an average annual rupee depreciation of 5%, your effective borrowing cost rise s to nearly 12.5%.
The impact extends beyond tuition and loans—students studying abroad also feel the squeeze on daily expenses. As the rupee weakens, groceries, rent, and transportation priced in foreign currency become more expensive in rupee terms, creating financial pressure for both families and students.
Impact of declining rupee on daily household expenses
India is a net importer of goods, which means many items, including everyday household products, heavily depend on foreign supplies. When the rupee falls, purchasing these goods in global markets requires more rupees, and that additional cost quickly trickles down to households.
Take crude oil, for example. India imports roughly 85% of its fuel—petrol and diesel. A decline in the rupee could lead to increased petrol and diesel prices, making daily commutes and transportation more expensive. This increase in cost ripples across the economy.
According to the RBI’s July 2025 Bulletin, a 10% rise in global crude oil prices could lead to an inflation increase of around 20 basis points. Although this study focuses on the cost impact when global crude prices rise, it is based on the premise that the cost of purchasing crude increases—a logic that applies equally when the rupee falls.
The report notes that a rise in fuel costs generally manifests as higher transportation and input costs, resulting in spillovers across sectors and an uptick in core inflation (headline inflation excluding food and fuel components).
When transportation costs rise, everyday essentials—from groceries to household items—also experience price increases. Even the cost of vegetables goes up, as both transportation and fertiliser prices increase.
Impact of falling rupee on cooking oil
Around 60% of India’s cooking oil is imported. In 2023-24, India imported 15.96 million tonnes of edible oil worth ₹1.32 lakh crore, resulting in a significant outflow of foreign currency. As these imports are denominated in dollars, every time the rupee weakens, the cost of cooking oil increases for consumers. Consequently, a declining rupee can lead to increased cooking oil prices, resulting in higher expenditures on monthly groceries.
Impact of depreciating rupee on electronics and consumer durable goods
A decline in the rupee causes electronics and consumer goods to become significantly more expensive because most devices rely on imported components, such as semiconductors, displays, and processors, which are priced in dollars. This situation compels companies to raise prices across the board, affecting everything from premium gadgets to basic appliances like LED bulbs and kitchen devices. Consequently, this creates a ripple effect throughout the tech sector, making technology products less affordable for Indian consumers as manufacturers pass on their higher import costs.
In short, a falling rupee quickly translates into higher costs for nearly everything you buy, from fuel to food to electronics, impacting both household budgets and the wider economy.
Impact of falling rupee on your investments
Impact on equity investments
The falling rupee presents a mixed scenario for equity investments. Export-focused sectors like IT and pharmaceuticals benefit as they earn in dollars and see improved profit margins when the rupee declines. This often leads to stronger quarterly results for these companies. In contrast, industries reliant on imports face challenges, with sectors such as aviation suffering due to rising fuel costs, and oil refiners and manufacturers encountering higher expenses from imported components.
Impact on fixed income instruments
For fixed income investments, a weakening rupee typically prompts the RBI to consider rate hikes or to refrain from cutting rates, resulting in higher bond yields. For example, in August 2025, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 23 basis points to 6.60%. This is advantageous for new bond buyers seeking better returns, but existing bondholders may see their portfolios suffer as rising yields lead to falling bond prices.
Impact on gold investments
Gold investments tend to perform well during a rupee decline. In 2025, while the rupee weakened, gold prices in India surged by 25%, serving as a hedge against currency depreciation. Although the Indian government may adjust import duties to manage gold prices, historical trends show that gold remains a reliable shield for portfolios amidst currency fluctuations.
Impact on international investments
Investing in international assets can also favor the investor when the rupee falls. As the rupee depreciates against the dollar, the value of dollar-denominated investments increases when converted back to rupees. For instance, between January 2022 and January 2025, the rupee fell from ₹74.5 to ₹86 per dollar, providing a 15.4% return from the currency change alone, which translates to a notable annual return even without capital gains from the assets.
Conclusion
In summary, a falling rupee and higher US tariffs create hurdles not just at the macro level but also for households and investors, who face rising prices and shrinking real returns. For instance, if your income isn’t rising by at least 5% annually after tax, you’re effectively losing ground. A portfolio that earns 12% may deliver only about 8% in real terms once taxes and currency depreciation are factored in.
Simply leaving money in the bank or in low-yield deposits won’t be enough. What’s needed now is proactive planning and sound financial guidance to safeguard and grow wealth in uncertain times. This is the moment to talk to a financial advisor.
